Dec 4, 2025 | New York City, NY
Riding the Real Estate Roller Coaster: Insights from NY ICSC
Just wrapped up a fantastic few days with the team at the NY ICSC conference. It is always energizing to connect with our retailer partners and take the pulse of the market in real time.
So, what’s the vibe out there?
Despite the headlines and the chatter, retailers are still in the game. Deals are happening and doors are opening. But make no mistake: there’s a sense that an economic storm is forming just beyond the horizon. Recession whispers are back, and uncertain interest-rate moves combined with unpredictable trade policies aren’t exactly providing clarity for the real estate world.
On the investment front, a few bold contrarians are dipping into office at 12–13 caps, true adventurers in today’s landscape. Retail, meanwhile, continues to hold its ground as a reliable cash-flow play. But one thing is clear: ground-up construction remains tough to justify. Between soaring construction costs and shaky financial projections, new retail centers aren’t penciling out aside from the occasional outparcel or small-shop build.
What does that mean?
Existing centers just became a whole lot more interesting. Limited new supply only increases the value of what’s already standing.
We’re seeing similar pressures in multifamily. With construction costs still climbing, the pipeline is slowing which ironically might be exactly what oversaturated markets need to rebalance over the next 24 months. But for operators who bought at sub-5 caps over the past few years? The pain is real. Expenses like taxes, insurance, labor, materials are rising fast, while rents are flattening as consumers increasingly trade down in search of value.
Bottom line: We’re near the bottom of the cycle… but probably not at the bottom just yet.
Uncertain times often bring the best opportunities for those who stay disciplined, creative, and connected. And if this year’s ICSC conversations proved anything, it’s that the industry is still very much alive, learning, and adapting together.
